Florida’s Governor’s Race Is Taking Shape

Trump has picked Byron Donalds. DeSantis has not picked anyone. Democrats are trying to find a path back in a state that has moved sharply right.

Florida’s 2026 governor’s race is no longer a distant political conversation. Gov. Ron DeSantis is term-limited, Republicans are fighting over who inherits the Florida conservative machine, and Democrats are trying to prove they can still win statewide in a state that has become much more difficult for them.

For conservative voters, the early shape of the race is clear: the Republican nomination is the main event, and the winner will begin the general election with the political advantage. Florida is no longer the purple knife fight it was a decade ago. Republicans hold the governor’s mansion, dominate state government, and have built a voter-registration edge that would have been hard to imagine when Florida was still America’s ultimate swing state.

Still, this race is not automatic. Property insurance, housing costs, hurricanes, immigration, education, taxes, and growth will all matter. The candidate who can connect conservative principles to daily Florida problems will have the advantage.

Tidings’ early read: U.S. Rep. Byron Donalds is the Republican front-runner because he has President Donald Trump’s endorsement, strong name recognition, national conservative support, and a clear lane with the MAGA base. Former U.S. Rep. David Jolly appears to be the Democratic front-runner after Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings suspended his campaign following a prostate cancer diagnosis. The general election leans Republican today, but Florida Democrats will likely try to make the race about affordability, insurance, and anti-Trump fatigue rather than ideology.  

So, conceivably your faceoff for the general election could be a former Democrat now running as a Republican against a former Republican now running as a Democrat.

The Republican Field

Byron Donalds
Byron Donalds is the candidate to beat. The Naples congressman entered the race with the biggest prize in Republican politics: Donald Trump’s endorsement. Trump posted that Donalds would be a “truly Great and Powerful Governor for Florida” and gave him his “Complete and Total Endorsement,” adding, “RUN, BYRON, RUN!” Donalds has positioned himself as a Trump-aligned conservative who would continue Florida’s rightward direction while focusing on insurance costs, taxes, Everglades restoration, education, and economic growth. His strengths are obvious: he is nationally known, media-ready, conservative, and backed by the most important Republican figure in Florida politics. His challenge is equally obvious: DeSantis has not endorsed him, and DeSantis allies have questioned whether Donalds was actually part of the conservative victories that made Florida a national model.  Donalds is a former Democrat.  

Jay Collins
Lt. Gov. Jay Collins gives the race a very different kind of Republican profile. A former Green Beret who served more than 23 years in the military, Collins lost a leg and continued serving with a prosthetic. His life story includes military service, overcoming homelessness as a teenager, disaster-relief work with Operation BBQ Relief, and a close association with DeSantis, who appointed him lieutenant governor. Collins is not the Trump-endorsed candidate, but he can credibly run as a service-first conservative with a real-world biography that is hard to dismiss. DeSantis has called Collins a “good guy,” but has stopped short of endorsing him. When asked about the race, DeSantis said, “If I get involved in the primary, you’ll know it.”

Paul Renner
Paul Renner, the former Florida House speaker, is running as a governing conservative with a record. Renner helped move major DeSantis-era priorities through the Legislature, including school choice expansion, tax cuts, abortion restrictions, and gun-rights legislation. He is a Navy veteran, attorney, and former prosecutor, and he has tried to present himself as the candidate of conservative results rather than conservative performance. His challenge is that he is running in a Trump-shaped Republican primary without Trump’s endorsement. For voters who want Florida to keep moving in the DeSantis policy direction, Renner has a serious argument. For voters who believe Trump’s endorsement should settle the race, Donalds has the advantage.

Charles Burkett
Charles Burkett, the mayor of Surfside, brings local-government experience from the community forever linked to the 2021 Champlain Towers South collapse. That tragedy reshaped Florida’s condo laws and gave Surfside a statewide profile. Burkett’s lane is practical leadership, municipal experience, and a record in one of Florida’s most scrutinized coastal communities. His challenge is scale. Running a town, even one with a major public tragedy in its recent history, is very different from building a statewide organization in a high-dollar Republican primary.

James Fishback
James Fishback, the CEO of Azoria, is running as a younger, combative outsider candidate. He has tried to build support among online conservatives and younger Republican voters, but his campaign has also drawn controversy. Reports have described legal and financial disputes involving his former employer, unpaid legal bills, and inflammatory online rhetoric. He may have an audience among voters attracted to disruption and confrontation, but he faces a steep climb in a Republican primary where Donalds already occupies the Trump lane and more established conservatives are competing for the governing lane.

Bobby Williams
Bobby Williams has been identified as an activist and food-bank volunteer running in the Republican primary. At this stage, he is not a major statewide figure in the race, but his presence reflects the size and openness of the field. In a race dominated by Donalds, Collins, Renner, and other higher-profile candidates, Williams would need a major breakthrough to become a serious contender.

The Democratic Field

David Jolly
David Jolly is the most interesting Democrat in the race because he used to be a Republican. The former Pinellas-area congressman left the GOP, became one of the most visible anti-Trump Republican commentators on cable news, and later joined the Democratic Party. That gives him a plausible argument with independents and anti-Trump voters, but it also gives conservatives a simple counterargument: Jolly has moved dramatically left from where he once stood. He now supports abortion-rights protections, has backed stricter gun laws including an assault-weapons ban, and has aligned himself with a Democratic Party that remains far to the left of most Florida voters on social issues, guns, education, and federal power. Jolly’s path is to argue he is a former Republican turned reform Democrat. The conservative critique is that he is another political convert trying to sell Florida a blue-state agenda with a moderate accent.

Jerry Demings
Jerry Demings entered the race as a serious Democratic candidate with a résumé that did not fit the usual progressive stereotype. He is the mayor of Orange County, a former sheriff, and the husband of former U.S. Rep. Val Demings. His pitch was experience, public safety, local government, wages, affordable housing, and mental-health access. But Demings suspended his campaign in June 2026 after announcing he had been diagnosed with a treatable form of prostate cancer and would focus on his health. That leaves Jolly as the clearer Democratic front-runner unless Demings re-enters or another major Democrat jumps in.

Dayna Marie Foster
Dayna Marie Foster, a mathematics teacher, has been listed among Democratic candidates or filers, but she is not currently a major statewide figure in the race. Her presence matters mainly because it shows the Democratic ballot may not be entirely uncontested, even if Jolly is the best-known active Democrat.

What Trump and DeSantis Have Said

Trump has already made his move. He endorsed Byron Donalds early and forcefully, calling him a “truly Great and Powerful Governor for Florida” and giving him his “Complete and Total Endorsement.” In a Trump-dominated Florida Republican primary, that endorsement is not just symbolic. It is the central fact of the race.

DeSantis has been more careful. He cannot run again, and so far he has not endorsed a successor. He has praised Lt. Gov. Jay Collins as a “good guy,” but has not formally backed him. He also previously suggested First Lady Casey DeSantis would be a worthy governor, though she is not currently in the race. DeSantis has also made clear he is not afraid to weigh in if he decides to do so, saying, “If I get involved in the primary, you’ll know it.”

That unresolved question may shape the Republican race. Trump has endorsed Donalds. DeSantis has not chosen. If DeSantis stays neutral, Donalds remains the clear favorite. If DeSantis gets involved, the primary becomes more complicated.

Tidings’ Frontrunner Watch

On the Republican side, Byron Donalds is the front-runner. Trump’s endorsement, Donalds’ national profile, and early polling strength make that hard to dispute. Collins and Renner are the most credible alternatives, but both need to convince Republican voters that governing record, military service, or DeSantis-era continuity should matter more than Trump’s endorsement.

On the Democratic side, David Jolly is the front-runner by default and by visibility. Demings’ suspension removes the most obvious Democratic alternative, and Jolly has the media profile to keep the race in the news. But he also gives Republicans an easy contrast: a former Republican who became a Democrat, changed major positions, and now has to sell a left-leaning Democratic platform in a state that has been moving right.

The general election begins with a Republican advantage. Florida has not elected a Democratic governor since Lawton Chiles in 1994. The state has grown more Republican since then, and DeSantis’ landslide reelection in 2022 changed the way both parties view Florida.

But Republicans should not sleepwalk through this race. Insurance costs, housing affordability, condo assessments, storm recovery, traffic, taxes, and growth are real issues. Voters who agree with conservatives on culture and governance still expect results.

That is the opening for Democrats.

That is also the warning for Republicans.

Florida voters may be conservative, but they are not patient when their bills keep going up.

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Footnotes:

1. Associated Press, “Rep. Byron Donalds, backed by Trump, says he’s running for Florida governor,” Feb. 25, 2025.
2. Associated Press, “Florida Lt. Gov. Jay Collins enters 2026 governor race against Trump-backed rival,” Feb. 2026.
3. Politico, “Paul Renner enters Florida governor’s race, taking on Trump-backed Byron Donalds,” Sept. 3, 2025.
4. NBC Miami / Spectrum News 13, reports on Jerry Demings suspending his campaign after prostate cancer diagnosis, June 2026.
5. Emerson College Polling, “Florida 2026 Poll: Donalds Leads GOP Primary for Governor,” April 2, 2026.
6. Ballotpedia, “Florida gubernatorial and lieutenant gubernatorial election, 2026.”
7. David Jolly campaign materials and public reporting on his party switch, abortion-rights position, and gun-control positions.
8. New York Post reporting on James Fishback legal and campaign controversies, March 2026.