NOAA and NWS Seasonal Outlook for Florida in 2026

Florida is starting 2026 with a familiar theme from NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center (CPC): above-normal temperatures are favored across the entire state, while precipitation signals are weaker and often come down to the week-to-week weather pattern rather than a strong seasonal tilt.¹

Below is a region-by-region breakdown for Florida, anchored in NOAA CPC’s Jan–Feb–Mar 2026 outlook and supported by National Weather Service (NWS) local context where it is published.¹²

The big picture for Florida

Temperature (Jan–Feb–Mar 2026)

CPC’s early-2026 outlook favors above-normal temperatures across Florida.¹ In plain terms, that raises the odds of a warmer-than-average three-month stretch statewide, even though cold snaps can still happen.

Precipitation (Jan–Feb–Mar 2026)

For precipitation, CPC’s map and discussion place much of Florida in Equal Chances, meaning NOAA does not see a reliable lean toward wetter or drier conditions at the seasonal scale.¹

What that means for residents: rainfall outcomes may hinge more on storm timing, frontal passages, and local patterns than on a strong seasonal signal.

Regional Florida outlook

1) Florida Panhandle (Pensacola to Tallahassee to Apalachicola)

Temperature: Higher odds of above-normal temperatures.¹
Precipitation: Equal Chances.¹

What to watch:

• Warm spells that can accelerate early-season pollen and increase fire weather concerns on dry, breezy days.

• Cold intrusions are still possible, but the seasonal tilt favors warmer averages overall.

2) North Florida (Jacksonville corridor, Suwannee Valley, Big Bend inland)

Temperature: Higher odds of above-normal temperatures.¹
Precipitation: Equal Chances.¹

What to watch:

• Temperature variability is still real in North Florida. A warmer-leaning season can still include sharp cold shots, but fewer or shorter events can still produce an above-normal average.

• If rain does not show up consistently, the region can slide into dryness quickly given sandy soils and winter evapotranspiration patterns.

3) Central Florida (Orlando, Space Coast, I-4 corridor, interior ridge)

Temperature: Higher odds of above-normal temperatures.¹
Precipitation: Equal Chances.¹

What to watch:

• A warmer winter-to-early-spring can mean more swings between pleasant and summerlike days.

• If frontal rainfall is sparse, vegetation dries faster, which can raise brush fire risk during windy stretches.

4) West Central and Southwest Florida (Tampa Bay to Sarasota to Fort Myers and inland)

Temperature: CPC favors above-normal temperatures for the season.¹
Rainfall (local winter framing): NWS Tampa Bay notes that for winter 2025–26 (Dec–Jan–Feb), the local expectation is below-normal rainfall, tied to the broader pattern often seen when the jet stream is positioned farther north.²

What to watch:

• The combination of warmer-leaning temperatures and episodes of reduced rainfall can put pressure on soils, landscaping, and outdoor burning conditions.

• Even in a warmer-tilting season, the Nature Coast and interior can still see freezes; NWS Tampa Bay emphasizes that cold outbreaks depend heavily on shorter-term patterns like the Arctic Oscillation.²

5) South Florida (Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, Naples region)

Temperature: Higher odds of above-normal temperatures.¹
Precipitation: Equal Chances.¹

What to watch:

• Warmth tends to be less “newsworthy” down south because it is already mild, but above-normal averages can still matter for water demand and vegetation stress.

• Rainfall outcomes may hinge on the timing of fronts and any transient storm corridors.

6) Florida Keys

Temperature: Higher odds of above-normal temperatures.¹
Precipitation: Equal Chances.¹

What to watch:

• Water and marine conditions often reflect wind patterns and fronts more than seasonal precipitation probabilities.

• Warm anomalies can influence comfort, energy use, and humidity patterns.

How to read “Equal Chances” without shrugging

When NOAA CPC shows Equal Chances, it does not mean “normal weather.” It means the climate signals that sometimes tilt a season wet or dry are not strong enough for NOAA to lean one way with confidence at the seasonal scale.¹

So your real-world outcome can still be:

• Drier-than-normal, if storm tracks miss Florida repeatedly

• Wetter-than-normal, if fronts and systems line up frequently

• Near normal, if it splits the difference

That is why Tidings Media will keep the focus on the high-value, actionable windows: the next 7 days, the next 14 days, and major pattern shifts as NOAA and NWS update guidance.

Tidings Media and Weather-Ready Nation Brand Ambassadors

Tidings Media is proud to be a Weather-Ready Nation (WRN) Ambassador. The WRN Ambassador program is NOAA’s way of partnering with organizations that help build community readiness by sharing trusted weather information, preparedness guidance, and impact-focused messaging.³

In practice, that means Tidings Media is committed to:

• Amplifying credible NOAA and NWS warnings, outlooks, and preparedness guidance

• Helping Floridians understand risk before severe weather hits

• Promoting practical steps that improve safety for families, schools, and businesses³

If you want free breaking weather updates tied directly to NOAA and the National Weather Service, you can subscribe to Tidings Media's TideWatch Storm Center.  Look for quarterly updates as NOAA and the National Weather Service update Tidings Media on their revisions and updated projections.

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Footnotes (Sources)

1. NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC), Official Seasonal Outlook and Prognostic Discussion for Jan–Feb–Mar 2026. Invalid URL+1

2. National Weather Service (NWS) Tampa Bay Area, Winter Outlook 2025–26 and ENSO’s Effect on Our Weather (West Central and Southwest Florida). National Weather Service+1

3. NOAA Weather-Ready Nation, WRN Ambassador program information and participation expectations. Climate Prediction Center+1

4. Weather-Ready Nation Brand Ambassador is a trademark of NOAA, used by permission. National Weather Service